| Title |
Relationships between Construction Business Cycles and Crimes |
| Authors |
Heo, Ja-Yun ; Gu, Dong-Hwan ; Jung, Chang-Mu |
| Keywords |
Five Major Crimes ; Construction Business Cycle ; Error Correction Model |
| Abstract |
The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of construction business cycles in architectural sector on crimes in Korea. Literatures on correlations between architecture industry and crimes have mostly focused on artificial environmental factors such as CPTED and etc.. But role of architectural construction for crime prevention, or impacts on other social pathologies, should not be ignored, taking its high employment effect into consideration. Earlier works about factors causing crimes found that the unemployed are easy to commit a crime. In this perspective, construction business, especially architectural sector, might be a solution since it offers plentiful temporary positions and jobs for unskilled workers on construction sites. It can be explained by "Anomie Theory" and "Rational Choice Theory". This study examines empirically the influence of fluctuation in construction business market on criminality using Granger Causality Test and Error Correction Model with annual construction expenses and crime rates data from 1990 to 2011 in Korea. All factors were tested statistically for reliability with unit root test(ADF test) and cointegration test(Johanson cointegration test). On the two estimated models, results showed that upturn of construction business contributed to reducing crimes, one of social pathological problems caused by unemployment. Also, on Impulse-Response Analysis, there were significant short and long-run effects on 5 major crimes by expenditure of architectural construction industries. This outcome implies that the construction business has a social role for maintaining public stability. It would be for shedding new light on the importance of architectural construction industry in terms of creating jobs for unskilled and temporary workers liable to commit crimes. |