| Title |
Prediction of Changes in Demand for Urban Infrastructures Based on Population Decline and its Reorganization Method |
| Authors |
노혁진(Noh, Hyeogjin) ; 고우림(Ko, Woorim) ; 조영태(Cho, Youngtae) ; 백진(Baek, Jin) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2022.38.11.153 |
| Keywords |
Population Decline; Urban Infrastructures; Correctional Facilities |
| Abstract |
Based on future population projections from Statistics Korea, the population decline issue in Korea is expected to intensify. Even in the
planning of correctional facilities, the declining number of unconvicted prisoners was not taken into account because of the immediate
overcrowding situation. The number of unconvicted prisoners also decreased due to the continuous decline in population. It has been
confirmed that by 2060, the number of unconvicted prisoners will reach 74% to 50.3% of the current number of prisoners by region.
Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative method for reorganizing correctional facilities to reflect the decreasing number of unconvicted
prisoners in a correctional facility plan based on the number of unconvicted prisoners over the past five years and future domestic population
estimation data until 2060. In the cases of the Seoul Regional Correctional Headquarter (RCH), the Daegu RCH, and the Gwangju RCH,
some of the currently in use facilities must be reorganized rather than reconstructed to keep the occupancy rate close to the target occupancy
rate. Meanwhile, at the Daejeon RCH, the overcrowding situation is expected to continue for the time being, even if the number of
unconvicted prisoners decrease. To maintain the target occupancy rate of 85% by region through the method proposed in this study, by 2060,
eight facilities in Seoul RCH, ten facilities in Daegu RCH, none in Daejeon RCH, and four facilities in Gwangju RCH should be
reorganized. |