| Title |
Analysis of Urban Block Housing Improvement Projects Through the Cox Proportional Hazards Model |
| Authors |
박사유(Park, Sau) ; 정재훈(Jung, Jaehun) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2026.42.1.265 |
| Keywords |
Urban Block Housing Improvement Projects; Cox Proportional Hazards Model; Survival Analysis; Urban Regeneration; Housing Redevelopment Policy; Risk Factor Analysis |
| Abstract |
This study examines the key factors influencing the successful completion of Urban Block Housing Improvement Projects using the Cox
proportional hazards model. The analysis draws on a dataset of 686 projects implemented nationwide between 2017 and 2024, tracking
progress from the initial union approval to final completion. On average, projects took 39.8 months to complete, though durations varied
widely from 5.9 to 108.2 months. Modeling results revealed that geographic location, project scale, and the timing of government financial
support strongly affect completion rates. Redevelopment projects in non-metropolitan areas showed a 74 percent lower hazard rate, indicating
slower completion compared to those in the Seoul metropolitan area, with p = 0.08. Similarly, medium- and large-scale projects had a 65
percent lower hazard rate than small-scale ones, with p = 0.07, reflecting the greater complexity of larger developments. The timing of
government subsidies produced a contrasting effect. Distinctly, the timing of government subsidies showed a paradoxical effect: initial-phase
funding was associated with a 57 percent reduction in the hazard rate and delayed completion, with p=0.03, reflecting underlying challenges
in the early stages that required financial intervention. In contrast, funding at the final stage accelerated completion by a factor of 12.46,
with a p-value less than 0.01, highlighting the decisive impact of end-stage financial assistance. Survival curve analyses further confirmed
these relationships. Overall, the findings emphasize the need for policy frameworks that address regional disparities, prioritize small-scale
projects, and enhance final-stage funding mechanisms to expedite redevelopment. The evidence provides practical insights for improving the
design and implementation of future small-scale housing redevelopment strategies. |