| Title |
Factor Analysis on Cost Overrun by Introducing FMEA and Proposal for Improving Approximate Estimation Reliability in Apartment Projects |
| Authors |
신승혜(Shin, Seung-Hye) ; 이강무(Lee, Kang-Moo) ; 임진빈(Im, Jin-Bin) ; 김주형(Kim, Ju-Hyung) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2026.42.3.339 |
| Keywords |
Cost Overrun; Approximate Estimation; FMEA; RPN; Improving Reliability; Apartment Projects |
| Abstract |
Cost overruns in apartment housing construction projects continue to be a persistent issue that cannot be fully explained by macroeconomic
changes. External factors like rising material and labor costs, along with internal uncertainties during early-stage estimation, often lead to cost
increases. Early estimates usually depend on limited design information and subjective judgment, lacking a structured approach to evaluate
risks. To address this gap, this study applies Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) to identify, measure, and prioritize risks of cost
escalation based on three criteria: frequency of occurrence, difficulty of detection, and severity of impact. Thirty-three risk factors were
identified from previous studies and 13 completed apartment housing projects. These factors were then reviewed and ranked by 90 industry
experts. Using the prioritized risks, mitigation strategies were developed and validated by 20 cost estimation professionals. The results show
that major risks can be reduced through structured early-stage interventions. Key risks include labor and material cost increases, omission of
escalation clauses, and estimation errors. The overall average Risk Priority Number (RPN) dropped by more than 60 percent, with
improvements reaching 78 percent for the most critical items. This evidence highlights that incorporating structured risk analysis into early
estimates enhances risk identification and mitigation, leading to more stable and reliable cost estimates in apartment projects. |