Title Identifying Regional Depopulation Types Through Validation of the Local Extinction Indicator System
Authors 이은결(Lee, Eun-Gyeol) ; 유석연(Yoo, Suk-Yeon)
DOI https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2026.42.7.149
Page pp.149-160
ISSN 2733-6247
Keywords Local Extinction; Population-Declining Area; Population Decline Index; Indicator System; Regional Typification
Abstract This study develops a multidimensional diagnostic framework for local extinction risk to address the population-centered limitations of the depopulation index used by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (MOIS). An indicator pool covering demographic, social, economic, and physical environmental dimensions was established through a review of previous studies and relevant institutional frameworks. Three diagnostic models integrating policy relevance and statistical validity were then examined. The final indicator system identified three major factors influencing local extinction: population and economic vulnerability, regional potential and economic vitality, and public safety and service imbalance. Based on these indicators, extinction-risk areas were classified into four types: low welfare-service gap rural agricultural and fishing villages, large cities experiencing complex decline, high-vitality, high-burden growth hubs, and low-vitality, low-service small towns and peripheral areas. The findings reveal policy blind spots in the current index, particularly in older urban centers of large cities and potential shrinking cities, where population size remains relatively stable despite severe industrial decline and infrastructure deterioration.