| Title |
Effects of Age-Specific Migration and Older Housing Share on Vacancy Rates in South Korea |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2026.42.9.259 |
| Keywords |
Housing Vacancy; Age-Specific Migration; Youth Out-migration; Older Housing Share; Two-Way Fixed Effects |
| Abstract |
Housing vacancy in South Korea is not merely a residual outcome of population decline but reflects a structural mismatch between durable
housing stock and changing residential demand. Distinguishing broad census-based vacancy measures from policy-relevant long-term disuse,
this study uses district-level vacancy rates to indicate housing-stock mismatch and the resulting spatial-management challenge. Using a panel
dataset of 228 Korean districts from 2014 to 2024, this study estimates two-way fixed-effects models with distributed lags to examine how
inter-provincial net migration by age group and the proportion of older housing affect vacancy rates. The results reveal distinct age-related
patterns. Youth net in-migration reduces vacancy rates after a one- to two-year lag, but this effect weakens as the share of housing aged 30 years
or older increases. In areas with a high concentration of older housing, youth inflows do not lead to the occupancy of existing vacant dwellings.
Family net migration is positively associated with vacancy rates, suggesting stronger demand for newer and larger housing, while older-adult
net migration has no significant effect on vacancy reduction. Cluster analysis further shows that youth migration reduces vacancies only in
low-vacancy, stable urban regions and not in high-vacancy, declining rural regions. These findings redefine vacancy policy as a matter of spatial
housing-stock management, requiring decisions on which dwellings should be repaired and reused, removed, or converted into public assets. |