| Title |
Daily Load Forecasting Including Special Days Using Hourly Relative Factors |
| Authors |
Dae-Hoon Ahn ; Sang-joong Lee |
| Keywords |
Load Forecasting ; Special Days ; Expert System ; hourly relative factors |
| Abstract |
This paper performs analysis the load patterns for the all the special days and studies the change of the load patterns for the last 15 years using Expert system based on the load record and the weather condition record. The Expert system is one of the four major load forecasting methods of the power system. And it is used for forecasting loads of the special days based on the Know-how of the load forecasting Experts. After the author simulates the load forecasting using hourly relative factors of the load patterns based on the past load records, there is considerable improved effect. The average errors of past 5 days load forecasting of lunar New Year"s Day (year 2002 and 2003) is 3.23[%]. Using the new method, the author forecast loads of the lunar new year"s days (the year 2005) and it shows only 1.78[%] error. A field manual for the load forecast can be made using proposed method. The authors expect this article could give a guidance to those who wish to be load forecast expert. |