| Title |
The Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Algorithm using the Multiple Regression Analysis Method |
| Authors |
Bong-Woo Nam ; kyung-Bin Song ; Kyu-Ho Kim ; Jun-Min Cha |
| Keywords |
Spatial electric load forecasting ; Local economy ; Optimal investment ; Distnbution system |
| Abstract |
This paper presents the spatial electric load forecasting algorithm using the multiple regression analysis method which is enhanced from the algorithm of the DISPLAN(Distribution Information System PLAN). In order to improve the accuracy of the spatial electrical load forecasting, input variables are selected for GRDP(Gross Regional Domestic Product), the local population and the electrical load sales of the past year. Tests are performed to analyze the accuracy of the proposed method for Gyeong-San City, Gu-Mi City, Gim-Cheon City and Yeong-Ju City of North Gyeongsang Province. Test results show that the overall accuracy of the proposed method is improved the percentage error 11.2[%] over 12[%] of the DISPLAN. Specially, the accuracy is enhanced a lot in the case of high variability of input variables. The proposal method will be used to forecast local electric loads for the optimal investment of distribution systems. |