| Title |
An Analysis on the Causal Relation Among SMP, Base-Load Share, LNG Import Price, and Exchange Rate |
| Authors |
Min Hyug Park ; Yang Taik Moon ; Jung Gu Park |
| DOI |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5207/JIEIE.2014.28.7.097 |
| Keywords |
Causality ; SMP ; Base-load Share ; LNG Import Price ; Exchange Rate ; VECM |
| Abstract |
This article examines the causality relationship among SMP, base-load share, LNG import price, and exchange rate in Korean power market during 2002∼2012, using unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model(VECM). The cointegration test shows that 4 variables without unit root have been in the long-run causality. As the results of ECM, SMP is analyzed to have been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and base-load share in the shot-run, while it has been unilaterally caused from LNG import price and exchange rate in the long-run. This article has the following policy implications: the adjustment of exchange rate to reduce he risk of LNG import price and the proper securement of base-load share for the long-run stability of SMP. |