| Title |
A Prediction on the Supply and Demand of Construction Engineers and Its Stabilizaition Measures |
| Authors |
이대형(Lee, Dae-Hyeong) ; 신원상(Shin, Won-Sang) ; 손창백(Son, Chang-Baek) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2024.40.12.295 |
| Keywords |
Construction Engineers; Supply; Demand; Prediction; Stabilization Measures |
| Abstract |
The purpose of this study is to analyze the difference in the supply and demand of construction engineers based on the number of employed
construction engineers and the forecast of the supply of construction engineers based on construction economic indicators and those who have
completed higher education, and to suggest a plan to stabilize the imbalance in manpower supply and demand in the future. The conclusion
obtained through this study is as follows. 1) The total amount of construction orders was the most appropriate leading indicator for demand
prediction, and the results of the ARIMA model prediction show that the demand for construction engineers will continue to increase until
2026 and then decrease after 2027. 2) The preceding indicators for supply prediction used entrance to construction-related departments and
universities (graduate) and the ARIMA model prediction results predicted that the supply of construction engineers will increase every year
until 2030 in both situation 1 and situation 2. 3) The difference in supply and demand between demand and situation 1 is predicted to cause
an oversupply phenomenon in both cumulative supply-demand and yearly supply-demand differences from 2023 to 2030. 4) Demand and
Situation 2 In the case of cumulative supply-demand differences, a supply shortage occurs until 2026, but an oversupply phenomenon occurs
from 2027, and in the case of yearly supply-demand differences, it is predicted that the oversupply phenomenon will continue to occur until
2030. 5) As a measure to stabilize the supply and demand of construction engineers in the future, a plan to improve the quality level of
middle-aged and elderly construction engineers and a countermeasure to the transition and expansion of the main fields of the construction
industry were proposed. In this study, the supply and demand forecast for various classes such as age and position was not made, and the
basic plan for stabilizing the supply and demand of construction engineers was also suggested through an expert survey. However, it has a
limitation in not being able to present a specific plan. Therefore, follow-up studies will be continuously conducted to supplement the
limitations of this study. |