| Title |
A Risk Management Method Using Fuzzy Theory for Early Construction Stage |
| Authors |
Hwang, Ji-Sun ; Lee, Chan-Sik |
| Keywords |
risk management ; risk breakdown structure ; fuzzy integral ; risk exposure |
| Abstract |
This study presents a risk management methodology using fuzzy theory for early construction stage and is focused on risk identification and risk analysis. This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities of early construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The risk analysis method presented in this study is based on the RBS that has two levels such as upper level and lower level. The risk exposure of lower level risk factors is assessed by fuzzy inference. The weight of risks is estimated by fuzzy measure. Then, the estimated risk exposures and weights are aggregated to assess the risk exposure of upper level risks by Choquet fuzzy integral. The risk exposure of upper level risks determine the priority of risk factors in view of risk management. This study performs case study to validate the proposed method. The result of case study shows that the methodology suggested in this thesis would be utilized well in evaluating risk exposure. |