| Title |
Forecasting of Car Distribution Considering the Population Aging |
| Authors |
Kim, Hyunwoo ; Lee Du-Heon ; Junseok Yang |
| DOI |
http://dx.doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2014.15.5.031 |
| Keywords |
Car Distribution Forecast ; Logistic Regression Analysis ; Diffusion Model ; Population Ageing |
| Abstract |
It has been a long time since cars had become important means of transportation in human life. Since 1970s, cars have been increasing steadily because of rising individual income and changing lifestyle toward leisure and convenience. The number of cars is just 1.8 per thousand populations in 1970s, however, in 2012, it has increased to 291.15. Forecasting the demand for cars would be useful to plan, construction or management in the field of motor industry, road building and establishing facilities. Our study predicts the demand of cars through estimating the growth curve model. Especially, we include ageing variables to forecasting identifying the effect of ageing on the demand of cars. The main findings are as follows. In 2045, the number of cars is expected to reach 486.8 per thousand populations with passing a primary saturation point at early 2020s. Also, due to effect of ageing, the predicted demand of cars is about 10% lower than in case of which if ageing effect not exist. |