| Title |
Estimation of Project Duration by Probabilistic Linkage Evaluaiton Technique (PLET) |
| DOI |
http://dx.doi.org/10.6106/KJCEM.2014.15.6.044 |
| Keywords |
PDM ; BDM ; Probabilistic Evaluation ; PERT ; PLET |
| Abstract |
Generally, the most difficult works at scheduling are to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties is so high. When estimating a project duration, therefore, the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered concurrently. The PERT that is one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration can not consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the probabilistic duration limited to'FS0'relationship. The purpose of this study is to propose the new method"PLET"for stochastically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation of the BDM's relationships, and also provide more wide and various probabilsitic information about the project duration by it. |