권준범(Kwun, Joon-Beom) ; 김덕수(Kim, Duksu)
https://doi.org/10.5659/JAIK.2025.41.2.61
This study aims to address the following two major questions: "Is the current decline in real estate prices an absolute crash, or is it just an
illusion resulting from a short-term spike?" To investigate this, the study compares and analyzes the trends in real estate prices starting from
six months after the first real estate policy of the previous government was implemented, excluding the period from six months before the
end of its term. During the period defined by this study, prior to the Moon Jae-in administration, the number of transactions for high-priced,
mid-priced, and low-priced apartments was 782, 196, and 235, respectively. However, during the Moon administration, these numbers surged
to 1,397, 1,150, and 1,512, respectively, before dropping to 300, 208, and 198 after the Moon administration, totaling 5,978 transactions.
Also, before the Moon administration, high-priced apartments saw a price increase of 50.85%, while mid-priced apartments experienced a
slight decline of ?0.56%, and low-priced apartments showed a stable rise of 2.54%, which was lower than the inflation rate. However, during
the Moon administration, when strong real estate policies were in effect, the price of high-priced apartments increased by 66.44%, mid-priced
apartments by 61.09%, and low-priced apartments by 12.71%. After the Moon administration, high-priced apartments continued to show an
increase of 20.53%, while mid-priced apartments dropped by ?0.62%, and low-priced apartments saw a decline of ?11.28%. As observed, the
fluctuating apartment prices nationwide appear to have been influenced by real estate policies that were overly focused on regulation, which
were not adequately balanced.